Need
for Economic Intelligence*
Jan
Leijonhielm
FOA, Stockholm, Sweden
1.
Intelligence estimates of changes in Europe at the end of
the 20th century
National
Intelligence services largely failed to foresee the great
changes in Europe in the ´80s and ´90s, at least in the
sense that they conveyed them to partners and/or convinced
their governments to act upon them. In some cases, as
in the matter of the Baltic states' independence struggle,
the KGB was accurate in its warnings, but failed to convince
the leadership to act upon this Intelligence.
Do
these Intelligence failures exhibit similar characteristics
over an extended time period? To a large extent, I believe
they do. My arguments for this hypothesis are:
Systematic
errors
- Intelligence
systems tend to pay attention to signals that support
current expectations regarding the behavior of other nations
or actors. This often leads to "group think".
It is also a fact that defensive is more common than offensive
irrationality.
- There
is usually adequate documentation, even in the case of
unexpected developments, in the materials gathered by
Intelligence services. The fault is generally not in the
collection of Intelligence, but in the analysis, and incorrect
analysis leads to inaccurate targeting of new Intelligence
areas.
- Intelligence
organizations are seldom equipped with "devil's advocates",
who are free to say: "But what if…"
- Cognitive
rigidity, plus anxiety over deviating analyses in the
Intelligence services, create an obstacle to pluralism.
- Analyses
prepared by both academics and professional Intelligence
officers has proved to be the best system, but this mix
rarely exists in reality.
Human-related
factors
- The
main reason that serious misinterpretations of events
occur is due to the aura of secretiveness and mystery
in the Intelligence world. Secrets - for example the operational
capacity of a military body, new weapons, or military
R&D progress - can be obtained. But what is in the
human mind, what a dictator´s ultimate intention is, or
how he will react, is almost impossible to gauge unless
one is able to utilize human Intelligence (HUMINT) at
a very close range to the leader in question. Even so,
there is always room for uncertainty. It was impossible,
for instance, for anyone to have claimed knowledge about
Saddam Hussein´s attack on Kuwait, or Yeltsin´s move to
dissolve the Soviet Union in Belovezha in 1991. Even the
acting Belorussian president Shushkevitj, by his own admission,
had not been informed of the ultimate purpose of the meeting.
- The
greater his influence, the more difficult it is to predict
a sovereign's actions.
- Another
cause of Intelligence failures due to human-related factors
is the relationship between Intelligence services and
politicians.2
Politicians are often unwilling to make costly decisions
which could accelerate an ongoing conflict or harm the
politician. The personal chemistry between the messenger
and the politician has therefore played an important role.
Generally, decisionmakers' inability to react is more
common than the Intelligence services' inability to warn.
2.
The role of Intelligence in conflict resolution.3
The
political and military elements involved in peacekeeping
require Intelligence in order to ensure the safety and
success of the operation. UN peacekeeping forces have
often lacked that capacity. The UN´s own Intelligence,
termed "information" for psychological reasons,
must often be substituted by the participants' national
Intelligence. Intelligence requirements vary, from data
on possible attacks in peace enforcement operations, to
HUMINT-related Intelligence regarding the state of mind
in a specific, small area, which could indicate an outbreak
of violence in low-level conflicts. A whole range of specific
Intelligence requirements is therefore needed. These more
complex type of requirements have emerged in the post
Cold-war era. At the same time, more attention must be
paid to political consequences at home, to the media,
and to the organization in question.
The
Intelligence service of a peacekeeping operation is usually
more fragmentary than ordinary Intelligence, which makes
it difficult to obtain a clear picture. The connection
between strategic and tactical levels is very strong.
When processing Intelligence from a peacekeeping operation,
it is seldom possible to use traditional criteria utilized
in "ordinary" wars. The multinational elements
place new demands on the Intelligence process as well.
Ways to promote effectivness and resolve these difficulties
are:
- Whenever
possible, cooperate on strategy, terminology, etc., in
advance of an operation conducted under UN auspices.
- Use
national Intelligence sources in the field to ensure a
common approach, and move gradually to joint efforts.
- During
an operation, create two to three scenarios, based on
the political-strategic situation, but adapted to tactical
levels. New tactical Intelligence can be used to better
evaluate the strategic situation.
3.
Subjects and methods of Intelligence agencies at the beginning
of the 21st century: possibilities and limits.
Intelligence
has been increasingly privatized during the past decade.
The number of large and medium-sized corporations, banks,
financial institutes, political and economic, academic
and non-academic think tanks dealing in Intelligence,
has grown at an astonishing speed. The need for and volume
of economic Intelligence has grown at the same pace. According
to the CIA, 40 per cent of its collection and analysis
in the mid 1990s concerned economic matters4.
Since the Primakov era, its Russian counterpart has also
placed a high priority on economic Intelligence, and the
same trend is evident in most Intelligence agencies, especially
in Germany, Japan and France. Large companies often invest
more capital and human effort in Intelligence than small
nations.
The
reasons for this development are obvious: most nations,
especially small ones, are vulnerable to external pressure
and rapid changes in the world. Economic sanctions, financial
instability, flow of raw materials, speculation on the
local currency, and various types of dependence, however
necessary, present potential dangers. Even unintentional
economic misconduct by a large neighbouring nation, resulting,
for example, in lost market shares, could become a serious
danger. By the same token, companies and other economic
factors are under pressure to interpret and evaluate their
environment.
The
link between economy and security has therefore become
stronger. This can be exemplified in several ways: prosperous
nations today are more inclined to be peaceful, since
prosperity is tied to economic interdependence, and is
too valuable to risk. A good economic performance thus
creates stability, and enhances the survival of democracies,
the most obvious example being North and South Korea.
Economy
will continue to influence security policy in the future.
It will be much safer and more effective for developed
nations to use economic instruments to achieve security
policy goals, and this will also place more demands on
economic Intelligence.
Economic
security has not often been addressed in the western media,
though the debate has been quite strong in Russia. There
are several reasons for this. The most important is that
economic security can be interpreted differently depending
on the level of society: in terms of personal security,
which was severely damaged during the transition period,
security of supplies and provisions, which is often in
danger in some parts of Russia, the nation´s security
and economic survival, and, finally, its role on the world.
Economic
Intelligence will become more internationalized and transparent
in the future. The necessity for speedy reaction will
increase as economic threats and situations which require
a quick response appear without warning. As a result of
this, national, traditional Intelligence may become less
useful and effective, except in military matters. These
new, rapidly changing threat dimensions do not allow as
much time as before for thorough analysis and decision-making.
As Francesco Cossiga5
has pointed out, the mix of private and governmental actors,
and the question of offensive and defensive Intelligence,
present another problem. In the future, not only the threats,
but also the actors, will become more indefinable. Economic,
political, or military targets in an information warfare
attack will be more indistinguishable, easier to disguise,
and harder to oppose. The Russian threat, as expressed
in its 1993 Military Doctrine, to use any kind of retaliation,
including nuclear arms, in response to a massive IW attack
demonstrates the potential future dangers. A clever hacker
with sufficient computer power could quickly close down
a small country economically, and severely damage sectors
of society in a larger one. A Swedish hacker recently
succeeded in paralyzing a major part of Florida's rescue
service.
We
cannot escape new and increasing threats to society, and
we are bound to become more dependent on high-tech solutions.
What we can do is use Intelligence to better understand
the nature of these threats, and build scenarios to predict
them and to prevent hasty and unpremeditated counteraction.
NOTES
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