The
Balkans, the World and the National Security of Bulgaria
Valentin
Stankov
Academy of the Ministry of Interior, Bulgaria
Global
problems and trends
By
the beginning of the 21st century, globalization has spread
to all spheres of public life; trade and economic relations,
the communication and information systems, and the advances
in technology have dramatically affected security. In
Europe and the Balkans, risks and menaces to international
security are omnipresent.
Radical
changes in the international situation re-ignited previous
conflicts. Ethnic and religious issues, suppressed during
the bi-polar era, created an immediate threat for national
and international security.
The
structure of the global information society increased
the current risks to the security of information. Progress
in state-of-the-art technologies created new opportunities
for penetration, manipulation, and destruction of data,
in addition to disrupting and compromising the records
and activities of institutions, organizations, and companies.
The threats are related to criminal activities and also
to criminal organizations, fundamentalists, even anarchists.
The
greatest menace to global stability is the dissemination
of technologies and especially of mass destruction weapons;
for it permits rogue countries and terrorist organizations
to trade in nuclear materials, biological and chemical
weapons, and state-of-the-art technologies. This results
in a change in the military balance in some regions in
the world and threatens peace and stability.
The
spread of terrorism threatens international security as
it expands worldwide and connects with the regional networks
of organized crime. The trend is for decentralization
of international terrorist structures and large-scale
use of current technologies by terrorist groups, seriously
impeding counter-actions. Easy access to biological components
has spawned so-called bio-terrorism.
Recent
years have seen the rise of rise of religiously-motivated
radical groups; they have largely replaced the extremist
organizations of the cold war period. The most serious
menace to international security and to regional stability
is posed by radical Islam and Islamic fundamentalism.
Radical Islamists have penetrated the government administrations,
armed forces, the security systems of some countries,
the mass media, and economic and financial groups. Potential
crisis areas continue to be the Near East, the Caucasus,
Central and South Asia, the Western Balkans, the Mediterranean,
and Cyprus.
Southeast
Europe and the Balkans
Southeast
Europe and the Balkans continue to develop positively.
There is also progress in the democratic process in Bulgaria
and Romania. Both countries are negotiating for full EU
membership and an invitation to NATO. There has been positive
movement in the Greek - Turkish relationship, and Yugoslavia
has commenced democratic changes. A positive reply to
the International War Crimes Tribunal in the Hague was
the arrest of former President of Yugoslavia, Slobodan
Milosevic. The country also received financial aid and
credits for damage caused by NATO air raids.
Nevertheless,
the region still has serious crisis potential, negatively
impacting Bulgaria's national security and interests.
Matters
of concern for Bulgaria's national security are as follows:
areas of tension in the territory of former Yugoslavia;
ethnic and religious contradictions and problems of the
state systems in some regions in the western Balkans;
political and economic instability arising from the transition
to democracy and a market economy; the violation of human
rights; the activities of military groups; and the rising
impact of the risks and challenges to security.
The
central destabilizing factor on the continent was eradicated
with the victory of the democratic forces in Yugoslavia.
Nevertheless, critical sources of tension remain in the
Yugoslav Federation - in Kosovo, Southeastern Serbia,
and between Serbia and Montenegro. There are still open
questions about the future of the Federation, the transition
to a democratic civil society and market economy, and
normalization of relations with the former Yugoslav republics
and neighboring countries.
Kosovo
remains a perpetual source of tension and instability,
caused by the demand for independence by the Kosovo Albanians;
the acts of extremist groups; the impact on and export
of these problems to Macedonia and Southeastern Serbia;
serious economic and social problems; and the still unresolved
problem of the area's status.
The
problem in Southeastern Serbia escalated after international
intervention in the Kosovo issue; it maintains its crisis
potential because of attempts by radical elements in the
Albanian population and the Kosovo Albanians to annex
the region to Kosovo. Important are the international
efforts to block the so-called Army for the Liberation
of Preshevo, Medvedzha, and Buyanovats, and other groups
of extremists from destabilizing the region.
The
disagreements between Serbia and Montenegro result from
Montenegro's intention to separate from the Federation,
an act that threatens the use of military power. If successful,
such an event would destabilize the situation in Serbia,
increase the activities of the separatists in Kosovo,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Macedonia, and would greatly
increase tensions in the region. The situation in Vojvodina
and Sandzak is relatively calm; however, ethnic tensions
could easily accelerate if Yugoslavia continues to disintegrate.
Bosnia
and Herzegovina is an ongoing source of risk to regional
security. The current success of the Dayton Treaty does
not preclude the resumption of ethnic conflict. The nationalism
issues are the prime obstacle to establishing a unified
multi-ethnic state.
The
pretensions of the nationalist circles in Albania and
in the neighboring regions constitute a serious crisis
potential. There is only a slight possibility for these
pretensions in the short run, but they could provoke a
change in the current status-quo. Their acts depend on
developments in Kosovo, Southeastern Serbia, Montenegro,
and Macedonia. Actions of the Albanian communities challenge
regional and European security, for they actively participate
in the criminal international traffic of people, drugs,
and weapons.
For
over a quarter century, the Cyprus problem has eluded
solution. The lack of concrete perspectives for its resolution
makes it a continuous source of tension.
Various
aspects of the Greek-Turkish conflict and the attitude
of Greece to the issue of EU integration of Turkey continue
to be potential risk factors as well.
The
issue of the Hungarian minority in Romania (1.6 million
people) and in the Serbian region of Vojvodina (350,000
people) is currently not on the agenda. The issue could
go forward if the centrifugal trends in Yugoslavia continue
and Hungarian minorities are mistreated in the respective
countries. The recently adopted Hungarian law advocating
preferences for Hungarians abroad was treated curtly in
Romania. Extreme nationalism continues to fuel separatism
and motivate the aggressive acts in many ethnic communities.
Bulgaria
in the context of global, Balkan, and Bulgarian problems
The
foregoing analyses of global changes, the situation in
Europe and the Balkans, and the risks of confrontation
let one conclude that the menace of a direct military
aggression against Bulgaria has decreased considerably
and there is currently no concrete military threat to
the country.
At
this time of decreased threat of a classical armed conflict
in the region, there still exist new, specific risks and
challenges for security: international terrorism and organized
crime; drug, weapons and people traffic; goods smuggling;
refugees and migration problems; threats to information
systems; religious extremism; ecological cross-border
problems; and large industrial damages and natural catastrophes.
Some of them, (i.e. the Chernobyl catastrophe) have a
long-term impact, and are not neutralized without large-scale
international cooperation.
Organized
international crime is a serious menace to economic development
for countries in transition and the entire continent.
The delay in the pace of democratic change and the unstable
political conditions have fostered the growth of criminal
activity throughout Europe.
Deep
economic and social differences that pervade the continent
have only intensified the refugee and migration problem.
The countries are used as transit points to western Europe
with the consequent illegal traffic in people, drugs,
and weapons. Criminal interests in Bulgaria are mainly
a result of the removal of visa limitations and also the
prospect of Bulgaria becoming an outer border of the EU.
International terrorism continues to affect Bulgaria's
national security, It can be traced easily to organized
crime, conflict among ethnic and religious communities
in the western part of the Balkan peninsula, and the extreme
behavior of religious fundamentalists. Potential ecological
risks for the Republic of Bulgaria have their source in
the existing national and cross-border projects, the closeness
of which could lead to cross border contamination of air,
water, and coastal areas. Although the menace to the security
of information systems and technologies is growing, Bulgaria
must guarantee its reliability in view of its accession
to EU and NATO.
Additional
risks to national security are tied to illegal migration,
international terrorism, and cross-border criminality,
primarily due to Bulgaria's closeness to regions of conflicts
and such sources of tension as the Near East and Caucasus.
The
foregoing discussion of global and regional problems in
Europe and the Balkans must conclude that the risks and
threats to the security and national interests of Bulgaria
will persist, requiring constant vigilance and preparedness.