VIEW
THIS PAPER in its published format
- 81 KB, pdf format
Development
& Intelligence 2003-2053
†
Stevan
Dedijer1
“Do
not laugh: it is I who knows
the future and reads its thought”
Denis Diderot, 3 December 1765, Corr.V.206
Stevan Dedijer, 25 September, 2003
“Don’t bite my finger!
Look where I am pointing”
Walter M Cullough in “Machines that Think” l967
and Stevan Dedijer, 25 September, 2003
1.
My Last Intelligence paper
I
wrote my first paper on Global Social Intelligence at
Dartmouth College in USA in l972. Cy Sulzberger commented
on it in “The New York Times”, and Sweden’s Foreign policy
journal “Internacionella Studier” published it in l973.
Since then, I have published about 250 papers and studies
on intelligence. This one, dealing with the future of
intelligence until the year 2053, is the last one I will
write.
For many years, through Croatian media, including the
first issue of Infoforum “Business Information”, published
in September 2003, I have been saying that, in Croatia,
there is little awareness of the state of the world and
its rapid development in general, and of the current intelligence
and security revolution in particular. In an effort to
correct this to some extent I have prepared this, my last
paper and the most difficult lecture in my 92 years, addressing
the following questions:
1. How is humanity evolving?
2. What is the role of intelligence in this evolution?
3. In what direction will intelligence be evolving?
I hope that today I will arouse your curiosity to read
this paper and send any criticism and questions to my
e-mail: Stevan.Dedijer@du.tel.hr.
2.
Development = Cultural Evolution
“Panta
rei” (Everything changes) Heracleitos 550 BC
“Panta rei tachiteron” (Everything changes faster) S.D.
l973 AD
Every
morning when you awake you should become aware that the
world around you is changing more rapidly than ever before
in the l0 million years of human history. Philosopher,
A. H. Whitehead first told us in l932: “The time spent
of important changes is considerably shorter than that
of human life.” In l989, two employees of IBM pointed
to us in “Beyond IBM”: “The fundamental fact of our new
era is: First, every day things change faster. Second,
every day people are more different from each other than
they were the day before”. The second thing to know is
that all change is part of the changes in the culture,
from one’s family, to one’s country, and to humanity as
a whole.
Nowadays,
almost all studies of development are based on the proposition
that “development is identical to cultural evolution based
on the evolution revolution of intelligence”. Culture
is defined as everything man made in every society: values,
social structure, politics, technology, norms, habits,
personalities, etc. One of the first to formulate the
above proposition was one of the founders on anthropology,
Lewis Henry Morgan. In l877 he said: “A common principle
of intelligence meets us in the savage, in the barbarian
and in the civilized man”. The Paleontologist Stephen
Gould, on page 324 of his critical view of measurement
of intelligence, “Measure of man” (published in l983)
proposes: “Human uniqueness resides primarily in our brain.
It is expressed in the culture built upon our intelligence
and the power it gives us to manipulate the world. […]
Human societies change by cultural revolutions. […] Our
large brain is the biological foundation of intelligence;
intelligence is the ground of culture.”
I
discovered this proposition by myself in l972, and based
the international conference in OECD upon it, which resulted
in the book “”Intelligence for Economic Development”,
Dedijer S., Jequier, N. Report from the OECD conference,
l979. My lecture is based on the short bibliography of
works that follow. The most theoretical of them, based
on the mathematical theory of games, is “Nonzero-The Logic
of Human Destiny” by Richard Wright, 2003, proposing “As
history progresses, human beings find themselves playing
non-zero-sum games with more and more of other human beings.
Interdependence expands and social complexity grows in
scope and depth”. The content of some of these studies
follows:
1.
“United Nations” Millennium Indicators Database 2003”,
including “Goals, targets and indicators”, consists of
the following eight culture evolving goals:
1.
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger,
2. Achieve universal primary education,
3. Promote gender equality and empower women,
4. Reduce child mortality,
5. Improve maternal health,
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases,
7. Ensure environmental sustainability,
8. Develop global partnership for development.
This
is followed by l8 targets, and 48 indicators, the last
being:
48. Personal computers in use per 100 population and Internet
users per l00 population.
2.
“State of the world 2003”, The Worldwatch Institute,
2003”, consists of the following chapters:
A
History of Our Future
Watching Birds Disappear
Linking Population, Women and Biodiversity
Combating Malaria
Charting a New Energy Future
Scraping Mining Dependence
Uniting Divided Cities
Engaging Religion in Quest for a Sustainable World
3.
“Global Trends 2015”, J. Gannon, chairman of the
National Intelligence Council of the U.S.A., 2001, reviews
cultural evaluation until 2015.
4.
“Surprising Futures – notes from an international workshop
on long-term world development”, by Swedish Council
for Planning and Coordination of Research, 1987.
5.
Robert Estis, “World Social Welfare Report”, School
of Social Welfare, University of Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
3.
Intelligence Revolution 2003
William
Colby, head of the United States Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA), was the first in l970s to perceive that
we live in an intelligence revolution. He was followed
by W. Agrell and S. Dedijer of Sweden. According to Colby,
the basic dimensions of this revolution are:
Since
l945, all of the world’s l80 sovereign countries have
developed national security and intelligence communities,
We
live in the midst of the emergence of all kinds of new
technologies (computers, space satellites, etc.) used
for intelligence and security procurement and analysis,
III.
“Privatization” of intelligence in the sense that corporations
are systematically using intelligence and security for
competition, growth and profit,
IV.
The establishment of “insight and control” of the intelligence
and security community to ensure its adherence to the
basic governing democratic principles,
The global impact of the intelligence revolution.
“This
then is the future dimension of intelligence,” says Colby
(“Honorable Men: My Life in the CIA”, l978), “It has become
an international resource to help humanity to identify
and resolve its problems through negotiation and cooperation
rather than continue to suffer or fight over them.”
To
Colby’s five dimensions of the current intelligence revolution,
I added the following three:
1.
Individualization of intelligence: the emergence of
the information technology in the life of individuals
stimulates them to be inquisitive and seek to obtain
information to help them understand and work on their
problems.
2.
“Spying is dying,” I wrote in the Lund University Journal
in l975, pointing out that the “espionage technique”
used in the past is becoming inadequate and antiquated.
My insight was confirmed in l997 by Professor Johnson,
adviser to CIA who stated that “espionage was a cold
war technique, now less and less suitable to intelligence
problems of today”. One of the most prominent diplomats
and historians in our century, G. F. Kennan, commented
on this in The International Herald Tribune, on May
20, 1997: “It is my opinion based on some 70 years of
experience that […] upward of 95% of what we Americans
need to know could be very well obtained by the careful
and competent study of perfectly legitimate sources
of information. […] Much of the remainder […] could
easily be non-secretively elicited from similar sources
abroad.”
3.
The emergence of development sciences is related to
individuals and to various social systems including
global problems.
World
I & S
I
guess that the world’s intelligence expenditure in 2003
amounts to about l50 billion dollars, of which, according
to an IBM report (see figure), 70 billion is spent on
business intelligence and security, 30 billion by the
USA, 1.2 billion by the UK, 5 billion each, I guess, by
China and Russia, and about 20 billion dollars by the
other l70 countries in the world.
a)
The European Union
In
1979, I heard the French President, Giskard D’Estang,
proclaim at a conference in Paris: “We are living in intelligence
revolution”. Two weeks later I read in “Le’Monde” that
the Prime Minister of France, M. Roccard, announced “We
live in intelligence revolution”. In 2003, G. D’Estang
submitted to the 15 states of European Union a proposal
for its new constitution. The best EU expert in Croatia
tells me that in the 188 pages of the proposed constitution
there is no mention of the word “intelligence” but the
word “security,” in relation to freedom, is mentioned
frequently. From another source I learned that, under
the patronage of the office of the EU Secretary General,
there is a “Future Committee,” headed by the German Mr.
Pappe, who leads a group consisting of directors of 15
largest EU corporations that discuss problems of business
intelligence. In view of the existence of intelligence
and security communities of hundreds of national states,
one must ask how will the 15 states of the European Union
organize their own joint intelligence and security community.
b)
The United Kingdom
In
1975, the director of Sweden’s Handelsbank, T. Browald,
wrote in his memoirs that tree institutions in human history:
the Catholic Church, the Swiss banks, and the British
Empire had had the best intelligence and security. In
the 20th century, Winston Churchill was one of the main
promoters of British I & S. In 1919, he established
the Industrial Intelligence Department, headed by his
friend, Captain M. Morton. This unit played a crucial
role in keeping track of German industrial development
under Hitler. In 1936, Baldwin’s government established
the Joint Intelligence Committee. As Mark Urban says in
his book, “The inside story of British intelligence: UK
Eyes Alpha”, published in 1996, “It is a strength of the
British system that Ministers do not receive conflicting
or piecemeal intelligence assessments on situations or
issues of concern. Through the JIC they are provided with
assessment agreed between departments which provide an
objective background to the discussion of policy.”
No
other country in the world that I know had something similar
to Britain’s JIC. Until John Major became Prime Minister,
British intelligence held secret even the name of the
director of the Secret Service (MI6). John Major published
a publicly available brochure (I have a copy of it) describing
the composition of the JIC. It includes, among others,
the name of the director of the Bank of England. The committee
is located at 11 Downing Street, next door to the Prime
Minister’s office at 10 Downing Street. The secretary
of the JIC for over 10 years, Charles Powell, has published
a book on his experience.
Mark
Urban starts his book with questions that every government
in the world should ask itself: “How good is our intelligence?
What kind of a return do ministers and officials get for
the hundreds of millions of pounds spent each year? How
does this secret establishment find direction and purpose
in age when old certainties have evaporated? Very few
people, even in Whitehall, would feel confident enough
to answer these questions. So the time is right, I think,
to explore the matter publicly.”
Urban points out that “More than anything else, British
intelligence is a system for repackaging information gathered
by the USA. Most intelligence relates to foreign or defense
policy, most of that intelligence is sigint (signal intelligent).”
A few years ago, according to Urban, Britain paid 500
million pounds to the United States for its sigint help.
c)
The U.S.A. “America Goes Backwards”
The
United States of America, with 5% of the world population,
is the richest country in the world. However, in The New
York Review, issued on June 12, 2003, under the title
“America Goes Backwards” Stanley Hoffman, former president
of the WTO said:
“A not so benign imperialism by fiscal and social policy
that takes good care of the rich but shuns the poor far
from “compassionate conservatism” (advocated by the first
Bush president of USA”) […] shrinking environment protection
can be justified by a defense of the economy, USA military
budget equals that of all other nations combined.”
Today,
very few people in the world realize that the U.S.A. has
many crucial traits of an undeveloped country! In 2002,
Prof. R. Estis of the University of Pennsylvania ranked
l60 counties according to social welfare indicators. He
placed Denmark first, Sweden second, and the U.S.A. 27th.
Around 30 million inhabitants of the United States, 10
% of its population, are, according to Estis, poor by
any standard. The May –June 2003 issue of the American
journal “Ad besters”, tells: “66% of the American adults
are overweight. Over obesity has increased 370% since
1970, while the number of overweight kids has doubled.”
Heart failure, aided by obesity, is the leading cause
of death in the U.S.A. Suicide is the eight leading cause
of death, and the third among teens. The U.S.A. has more
people in jail in total and per capita than any other
industrial nation. The prison population has more than
quadrupled since 1980.
According
to The Economist “World in Figures 2003,” the United States
has the largest population in prison, and the largest
number of people in prison per 100,000 inhabitants. As
to business corruption, where l0 denotes the least corrupt,
the U.S.A. is l6th “Almost everyone who is anyone in Washington
– from George Bush Sr. to Henry Kissinger, Bush’s vice
president Dick Cheney – has stuck his hand in Saudi cookie
jar. The Saudis contribute to both political parties,
and they reward their supporters lavishly”, writes 20
year CIA veteran Robert Baer in his 2003 book “Sleeping
with the devil – How Washington sold our soul for Saudi
crude”. President Bush and vice president Cheney were
intimate friends of the directors of Enron, the most crooked
firm in American business history. “Share of USA Income
Doubles for Richest” writes Tom Herman in August 2003,
in “The Wall Street Journal”: “It is not news that the
USA has a very wealthy upper crust. But the enormity of
the upper class wealth, as laid out by the government
IRS bureau, is remarkable. So it is the group’s growth
percentage of nation’s wealth. [...] Just look at the
corporate directors’ reports for 2000 for the most compensated
businessmen. [...] Some people in this country are making
an immense amount of money”.
After
the power breakdown in August 2003, that affected about
60 million people in the United States and Canada, September
2, 2003 issue of “Le’ Monde” writes: “According to former
minister of the Democratic administration, twenty six
years after the great breakdown of electric power in New
York the power supply network of the USA is at the level
of an undeveloped Third World country.”
Since
l945, according to the American writer Gore Vidal, in
the article “Eternal war for eternal peace” published
in Germany, the U.S.A. engaged in about 300 military operations
in close to l00 countries.
As
I wrote in the June 2003 issue of the journal “Croatia’s
Left”, the American foreign policy is a prisoner of Israel,
determined in its grand lines by the Jewish lobby in the
United States. The low intellectual level of the editors
of American mass media is seen in the fact that, after
September 11, 2001, none of them asked themselves “What
is terrorism?” Terrorism has a 2000-year-old history:
It is a poor man’s war, offering his life for freedom.
None of these American mass media recalls that the Irish
have used terrorism for 200 years to obtain freedom from
the Britain.
To
conclude, we can agree with Robert David Steele, on page
80 of his ”On Intelligence”, published in 2000: “We are
a smart people, but a dumb Nation and this is something
we must be aware of if we to prosper and be secure in
the 21st century,” and Mark Danner in “Iraq: The New War”,
published in the New York Review on September 25 2003,
“the US has shown itself to be a strange, hybrid creature,
military giant and political dwarf”. General W. K. Clark,
who announced his intention of running for the Democratic
Party’s presidential candidate position on September 17
2003, published “Winning modern wars Iraq, terrorism,
and the America Empire” in 2003.
The
American government under G. Bush is currently engaged
in imperialistic games, as pointed out by, among others
Andrew J. Bacevich in his “American Empire – the realities
and consequences of US diplomacy”, published in 2003.
On page 4 he says: “Since the end of Cold War the United
States has in fact adhered to a well-defined grand strategy.
[…] That purpose is to preserve and, where both feasible
and conductive to US interests, to expand an American
emporium. […] Should events belie either of those expectations,
the United States will employ its dominant military power
to thwart any conceivable challenge to its preeminence.”
Morgan
Dan, Washington Post, reprinted in “The Wall Street
Journal Europe” in August 2003,” Debate over U.S. ‘Empire’
Builds on Right, Left, Across Political Spectrum; Voices
Question Direction Of America’s Foreign Policy”; “At forums
sponsored by policy think thanks, on radio talk shows
and around dinner tables throughout America, one topic
has been hotter than the recent weather in Washington:
Has the US become the very “empire” that the republic’s
founders heartily rejected?”
The
New York Review of 25/IX/2003 reviews six new books
on “the American Empire”
Hobsbaum,
Eric, “Ou va l Empite Americain? (Where is the American
empire going)”, Le’ Monde Diplomatique, June 2003
Gore
Vidal (in German) “Eternal War fir Eternal Peace”
Europaische Vwerlagsanstalt, 2002 lists over 300 military
operations the USA has engaged in since 1945.
Such
an ultra conservative policy is carried out by the Bush
government amidst our Current Intelligence Revolutions,
generated by the American information technology. What
is the current state of the American intelligence community
with its 13 agencies, its 30 billion dollar budget, and
tens of billion dollars R&D budget?
In
his book (written in French), “La citedelle endormie”,
Faillite de L’espionage americain (Fortress asleep – the
failure of American espionage), published in 2002, Jean
Guisnel describes the problems of the United States intelligence
community. Inspired by this book, I have listed the following
events as the failure of the U.S.A. intelligence community,
which consists of the following agencies:
- Department
of Energy
- Department
of Treasury
- Department
of Army
- Department
of the Navy
- Department
of the Air
- US
Marines (Department of the Navy)
- FBI-
Department of Justice
- Central
Intelligence Agency
- National
Reconnaissance Office
- Central
Imagery office
- National
Security Agency
- Defense
Intelligence Agency
- Department
of State
No
organization or individual in the United States oversees
or controls this I & S community, with its 13 agencies.
Each of them is a self governing bureaucracy in intense
competition with the other agencies. Robert Gates, the
director of CIA under four presidents, on page 197 of
his autobiography “From the Shadows,” states that “The
CIA is one of the most closed bureaucracies in Washington,
an agency hostile to “outsiders” at any level, a complex
and clannish organization deeply averse to change.” (p.
197). It seems all other American I & S agencies,
are just as bureaucratic.
The
United States of America is the most informed country
in the world. However, intelligence of a social system
depends on the analysis of the gathered information. The
American I & S community is extremely week in analysis
of information gathered. In 1999, director for analysis
of CIA, R. Heuer, published “Psychology of Intelligence
analysis”, which consists of articles written between
l978 and l986 for the internal use of CIA directorate
of intelligence. I read the book, and I believe that,
had a student of mine written it, I would have flunked
him/her, for not understanding what intelligence analysis
really is.
The
U.S.A. has conducted dozens of its own intelligence community
surveys. One of the earliest such studies was conducted
by General Doolittle in 1955, under President Eisenhower.
In this report, General Doolittle says: “Since USSR is
not guided by any ethical principles, the US should also
not be guided by any ethical principles.”
A
list of the latest reports on the U.S.A. is cited in G.
F. Treverton’s Reshaping National Intelligence for the
age of Information. This book was recommended by three
former directors of CIA, by Admiral Bob Inman, former
head of the National Security Agency, by Professor J.
S. Nye, head of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard,
and by Z. Brzezinski, Sarter’s National Security Adviser.
One of the main shortcomings of this book is that it does
not devote attention to the U.S.A. in the evolving planetary
society. Only a three-page long section includes a question
“What kind of America?”
Here
is Treverton’s list of studies on American intelligence:
“The four most prominent to report are the executive-congressional
Commission on the Role and Capabilities of the United
States Intelligence Community (often and herein called
the “Aspin-Brown commission” after its two chairmen),
Preparing for the 21st Century, Washington, D.C., March
1, 1996; the House Intelligence Committee, IC21: The Intelligence
Community in the 21st Century, Washington, D.C., March
4, 1996; and two private panels, the Council on Foreign
Relations Independent Task Force, Making Intelligence
Smarter: The Future of US Intelligence, New York: Council
on Foreign Relations, 1996, and the one I was most associated
with, the report of the Twentieth Century Fund Task Force
on the Future of US Intelligence, In From the Cold, New
York: Twentieth Century Fund report.” There is also “The
National Strategy Security Strategy”, published in September
of 2002, signed by President George Bush.
None
of these reports has analyzed intelligence & security
failures of the I & S community. What follow is my
list of them:
1.
Attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan in 1941
2. Attack by North on South Korea in 1950
3 China’s attack on South Korea in 1952
4. “Bay of Pigs” invasion of Cuba in 1961
5. Attack by USSR on Czechoslovakia in 1968
6. Overthrow of the Shah by Khomeini
7. Attack by allied Arabs on Israel in 1973
8. Collapse of the USSR in 1989 (not foreseen by the
USSR’s KGB)
9. Terrorist attack on the USA on September 11, 2001
10. Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction
d)
An Intelligence State: Sweden
Sweden
is a small country, with a population of only 8.5 million,
or 0.2% of the world’s population. Yet it produces 1%
of the world’s wealth. By all indicators of development,
Sweden belongs to the most advanced among the 180 countries
of the world. Of all the countries of the world, Sweden
perceived the intelligence revolution and applied it for
its outstanding social development best. For example:
Sweden
among 180 Countries
Education - first
Competitiveness - fifth
Democracy and anticorruption - second
Standard of living - fourth
Social welfare - second
Research and Development - first
“National Intelligence Quotient” (an indicator I invented
to measure the intelligence & security of social systems
of a country) - first
Social
science is still unable to tell us reliably and validly
why one country is more developed than another. I propose
that Sweden’s high development among 180 countries can
be ascribed, among many others, to two factors. The first
of these factors is Sweden’s social personality or its
national character, formed during its history. Social
sciences have not yet learned how to define and use such
concepts. During my 38 years in Sweden, I strove intensely
to understand its way of life, social personality and
national character. I identified 15 national character
traits of Sweden:
- .Strive
toward a maximum rationality of human behavior,
- “Ording
och Reda” - Everything is to be done rationally and in
proper order,
- Maximum
communication without laughter and emotion in decisions
and the workplace,
- “Yenta
lagen” - we are all equal in Sweden so be ashamed if you
want to stick out,
- Respect
of privacy and individuality regardless of sex, national
origins, income, or social status,
- Humane
approach to justice: society creates criminals, they have
a right to privacy,
- Curiosity
is essential, but must not be openly displayed,
- Every
conflict can and must be solved without violence,
- All
types of creativity and inventiveness must be stimulated
and rewarded,
- Travel
abroad - intelligence of the world is essential,
- Ombudsman
- a concept used in Sweden to refer to a citizen appointed
by the government to whom every one can complain against
misuse of power by the state officials,
- Widespread
and deep love of nature and the countryside,
- ”Allemans
Ratt” - the right to be on private property coupled with
the obligation to respect it.
To
some extent, the present social personality of Sweden
can be also explained by the fact that its social-democratic
government has been constantly elected and in power
during the past 80 years. One unique contribution from
this to the life style of Sweden is the fact that the
social democrats in 1938 proposed a social innovation
to ensure industrial stability and avoid conflicts between
capital and labor. That year they established the ”Salttsjobad
spirit”, a time when representatives of capital and
the trade unions meet every year to agree on problems
connected with work conditions and salaries. Both sides
come with research reports on the issues and a way is
always found, taking the interests of both sides into
consideration.
When
I began to study the history of intelligence in l972,
I discovered that it played an important role in Sweden’s
history. At the same time, I found that there was no
systematic study of it, just abundant examples of it.
Here are a number of cases of intelligence in Sweden’s
history:
1.
The appended figure from 8th century shows the Viking
god, (Oden in Swedish) on a horse, as two ravens,
named Huggin and Muggin, fly above him to find intelligence
useful to Oden. Huggin and Muggin are today the symbols
of Military Intelligence of Sweden.
2.
In 1767 the “Gotteborg Spy”, (a journal, still published
by the Gotteborg University) published 20 articles
by the Swede Wallenstrole, describing the process
of making porcelain in England. We know now that in
1713 a French Jesuit stole in China the process for
porcelain, and the French scientist Raemur began making
porcelain in France. From there it was smuggled to
England and from there to the “Gotteborg Spy” journal.
3.
In 1903, Marcus Walenberg, director of SEB Bank, sent
the 23-year-old R. Jolin to France to learn from the
Credit Lyonnais Bank and the French military intelligence
how to assess individuals and organizations seeking
loans. The history of the SEB Bank by Professor Gardlund
tells that Walenberg said, “We shall not call your
unit ‘our intelligence department’ but ‘statistical
department’”. My student, Ulf Peterson, who worked
in this department, gave me a photo of it from the
1950s.
Sweden’s
Intelligence & Security Community in 2003
The
concept intelligence and security community was first
used in the U.S.A. to describe the 13 American government
intelligence and security organizations. I shall use it
to describe all social systems in a country engaged in
I & S. I do not know of any country in the world that
has developed intelligence and security in its constituting
organizations as Sweden has. In this sense, it can be
said that Sweden is the model for other countries.
The
basic components of Sweden’s I&S community are:
1.
Business Intelligence & Security (see attached list)
2. Consulting I & S firms and state organizations
(see list)
3. Intelligence &Security courses (see list)
4. Municipal Intelligence and Consulting units (see
list)
5. Department of Defense (Military Intelligence Authority,
Special Services Authority, Radio-Satellite Listening
Center)
6. Foreign Policy Department
7. Industry Department (Technical Attaches)
8. Police
9. Security police (SAPO)
10. Defense Policy Research Institute (FOI)
11. Intelligence Survey and control Com. (FUN)
12. Customs
13. East Economy Institute
14. Foreign Policy Institute
15. The Security Agency Commission
16. Sweden’s Private Owners Association (SAF)
A.
Swedish firms which are members of SPCI (Society of Professionals
for Competitive Intelligence):
- AlzoNobel
Surface Chemistry AB
- Astra
Arcus AB
- Astra
PainControlAB
- Celsius
AB Comintel
- Danisco
Sugar AB
- Ericssion
Radio Systems AB
- Ericsson
Mobile Communications AB
- GlobalInfosearch
- IBM
Svenska AB
- MolnlykeHealth
Care AB
- Pharmacia
& Upjohn
- SAAB
AB
- SCA
Hygiene Products AB
- Tetra
PackCarton Systems AB
- Solutions
AB
- Silo
Group AB
- SKF
Group Headquarters
- Stockholm
ResearchAB
- Telia
AB
- VattenfallGroup
AB
- Volvo
Car Corp.
- (plus
about 50 other firms)
SE
Bank and SAS, on the other hand, are not members of SPCI.
B.
Institutions and I & S Consulting:
- Stockholm
Municipal Intelligence + (see figure)
- National
Post Office
- National
Railways
- Anderbjork
Community Intelligence
- Docere
Consulting
- Macro-Intelligence
S.O.S.
Monthly enterprises Security Journal, containing, among
other, hundreds of firms providing security consulting
and technology
C.
Courses in Sweden on Global Intelligence and Business
Intelligence in 2001
- Universities
- Lund
University
- Helsingborg
Campus
- Goteborg
University
- Stockholm
University
- Luleo
Technical University
- Stockholm’s
Economy School
- Vaxjo
University
- Advanced
High Schools
- Jonskoping
High school
- Gavle
High school
- Melardals
High school
- Private
Consultants
- Docere
Co.
- Kairos
Future
- Cityuniversity
- Gallofta
Learning
- State
Institutions
- Police
High school
- Defense
High school
D.
SAF = Sweden’s Employers Association – Intelligence and
Security effort
A
crucial role in the development of Sweden’s I & S
community was played by SAF. Twenty years ago Colonel
Lennart Borg began to help firms to develop the security
through all types of innovations. In 1987, L. Borg published
a study saying that in 1960 65% of intelligence and security
expenditure was for the military and 15% for technical
and economic intelligence. In 1985, military intelligence
cost 30% and economic and technical intelligence cost
60%. Since l990 SAF began to develop the intelligence
of firms. During the last l0 years Borg organized the
annual conferences attended by all the above listed components
of Sweden’s I & S community. During my study of the
current intelligence revolution I have not been able to
find any other country holding such I & S community
conferences. From each of such conferences a volume was
prepared. In l997 it was entitled: “Global Intelligence
and Competitive Power”. In it, the head of Military Intelligence
of Sweden, General Eric Rossander, accepted my idea of
an intelligent state by asking “what kind of information
do we need to achieve Stevan Dedijer’s intelligent community?”
Intelligence researchers in Sweden took up some classical
ideas as “Early Warning National Security”, as did Jan
Lejonhjelm of FOI. Others, like the banker Rutger Palmstierna
of the firm “Macro Intelligence” studying “Early Financial
Warning”, study new intelligence problems. Every year
W. Agrell holds a very creative two-term business intelligence
course.
The future intelligence research problems of Sweden will
have to be studied. In view of the complexity of Sweden’s
I & S community, one must ask whether Sweden will
be the first country in the world to establish, in addition
to the Foreign Policy, Economic Policy, and Defense Policy
Ministries, also a National Intelligence & Security
Ministry. Its aim would be to implement the emerging I
& S ideas from the current intelligence revolution
and co-ordinate all dimensions of Sweden’s I & S effort.
In 2003 the government of Sweden established a commission
to recommend greater transparency of the military intelligence
and security of the country.
4.
Stevan Dedijer Prophet: “Omega Point 2053”
During
its evolution, humanity has experienced several intelligence
revolutions. I identified the following, starting at about
6 million years ago to 2000AD:
1.
Bipedalism, freeing primates hands for work - 7 to 5
million years ago
2. The increase in weight of the human brain, from about
500 to l5000 grams – 4-3 M.Y.A.
3. Evidence of culture - about 3 million years ago
4. Emergence of language - about l50 000 years ago
5. Invention of writing - 6000 to 3000 B.C.
6. Scientific revolution, experiments & Mathematics
used to make new discoveries - l5th –l7th century
7. Rise of capitalism, national states, and corporate
intelligence - l300-l600
8. Industrial revolution, invention of innovations -
l780-l820
9. Global mass education revolution - 19th and 20th
century
l0. Information technology revolution: computers, satellites,
the Internet - 20th century.
In
the 1920s, three individuals prophesized the emergence
of future intelligence revolutions. Fifty years before
the emergence of information technology and computers,
in his “Public Opinion” the publicist Walter Lipman foresaw
that the growth and increased usage of knowledge and information
in the world will result in the emergence of a pervading
organized intelligence.
The
founder of the pragmatic philosophy, John Dewey, predicted
that the development of social intelligence will avoid
the conflict between the laisser faire market economy
and the totalitarian socialism. The third intelligence
prophet was the Jesuit priest Theillard de Chardin, about
whom the “Dictionary of Philosophy” (1978) says: “The
evolutionism that Theillard advocates is an all embracing
evolutionism that characterizes much more than living
things”. His evolutionism caused him to be dismissed from
the Jesuit order. Theillard predicted that the biosphere
will be succeeded by the emergence of the “noosphere”
that is “an intelligence sphere” (in Greek noos is intelligence)
and of the Omega point in human history, which he described
in rather mystic terms.
Today
I join these three prophets from the 1920s to foresee
what will happen with the cultural evolution and intelligence
by 2053, the year I call “the intelligence Omega point”.
First, I foresee that more and more countries will develop,
just as Sweden is doing, the intelligence of all their
social systems. Second, Dewey’s conflict between the laisser
faire market and totalitarianism will be, in the words
of W. Colby: “… the future dimension of intelligence:
it is becoming an international resource to help humanity
to identify and resolve its problems, through negotiation
and cooperation rather than continue to suffer or fight
over them”. In other words, by 2053, I predict, war will
be eliminated in much the same way as small pox has been
eliminated.
As
early as 450 B.C., Hypocrites perceived: “It ought to
be generally known that […] our brain […] is the special
organ which enables us to think, see, and hear, and to
distinguish the ugly and the beautiful, the bad and the
good, pleasant and unpleasant.” (cited by F. Crick in
“An Astounding Hypothesis”, l988). This is repeated by
Nobel laureate, J. Eccles in “The Human Mystery” (1980),
when he states that “Brain is central to the human mystery.”
Today,
close to 30,000 researchers are studying the brain. They
consider it “the most complex system in the universe”.
In 1890, it was discovered that the brain consists of
100 billion neuron cells, each connected to 100 - 10 000
other neurons. In every issue the journal “Nature” publishes
research on the brain, yet its editor John Maddox, in
his book “What remains to be discovered” (1999) says:
“We don’t know how the simplest brain works”.
There
are three kinds of writings on the brain. First, books
by neuroscience researchers, as for example, S. Greenfield,
who wrote “The Human Mind Explained” in 1996. Second,
there are books by those who think they can tell us how
to use our brain, like T. Buzzan’s “Use Your Brain”, published
in 1982.
Third,
there are heuristic works or propositions on how to create
products of the brain in science and technology. A. Einstein,
in a letter to Souvorine, answers his question “What is
science?” by claiming that “Science starts with insight
leaps, followed by derived axioms tested by experiment.”
Nobel laureates W. Heisenberg and W. Pauli stated: “In
physics we start with questions”. Nobel laureate R. Feynman
tells us to “Learn from science that you must doubt the
experts.” Mathematician H. Poincare comments on “Hypothesis
in science” saying: “Every invention is a novel combination
of existing insights”. W. Gratzer, in “Eureka and Euphorias:
Oxford Book of Scientific Anecdotes”, published in 2002,
describes such important insights in the history of science,
from Archimedes’ “Eureka” in 250 B.C. to the discovery
of the structure of the DNA by J. Watson and F. Crick
in l953 etc.
Here
I shall do a bit of guessing about the further development
of the noosphere and of the possible Omega Point in human
history - which Chardin left rather mysterious and ill-defined.
Reading carefully the works listed in the bibliography,
I could not find any hint that the neuroscience has begun
to describe, in the language of interaction of the 1000
billion neurons in the brain, the basic elements of human
creativity such as doubt, a question, a problem, an idea,
a hypothesis, an insight, or a thought. I predict that
soon these will be analyzed.
I
have studied the following works intensely:
1.
Greenfield, S., “The Human Mind Explained”, 2000
2. Eatey, J., “User’s Guide to the Brain”, 2002
3. Underwood G. “Oxford Guide to the Mind”, 2001
4. “La revolution des neurosciences”, Isabel France,
January 2000
5. Watson, J. D., “DNA: The Secret of Life”, 2003
6. Wills, Ch., “The Runaway Brain. The Evolution of
Human uniqueness”, 2002
7. Parker, S., McKinney, M., “Origin of Intelligence
- The Evolution of Cognitive Development in Monkeys,
Apes and Humans”, l999
8. Foster, J. M. “Cortex and Mind, Unifying Cognition”
On
the basis of this study, I could not find why the neuroscience
in 2003 could not define or explain such heuristic creative
tools as questions, ideas, insights, etc, in terms of
our knowledge of interaction of neurons.
Because
of all this, I end my last paper on intelligence with
the prediction and prophesy that at Point Omega, in the
year 2053:
l.
The proposition of W. Colby on global intelligence will
elim inate war from the history of the human species,
2. All political entities will have, like Sweden now,
developed their social intelligence,
3. The evolution of “Nonzero” interaction in the planetary
society will result in an unprecedented development,
4. Both J. Watson, the discoverer of the structure of
DNA, together with F. Crick, in his book “DNA: The Secret
of Life” (2003) and L. Whaley, in “The Aging Brain”
(2003), point out to the finding of the psychologist
Flint that in the most developed countries the IQ has
grown by over 20 %. What will the IQ of the planetary
society inhabitants be at the Omega Point in 2053?
5. The interaction of the development of neuroscience
and of the human genome science will solve many of the
cur rently perceived mysteries of the human brain and
mind!
5.
Where is Croatia in development and intelligence?
Where
will Croatia be at the Omega Point 2053?
As
shown on page 15, Sweden, according to world development
indicators, belongs among ten most developed countries
in the world. Croatia, according to the same indicators,
is between 45th and 65th place. I address these two questions
to everyone reading my last paper today, to the Croatian
governing establishment, and to vice-premiere Graniæ,
whom I understand to be responsible for the strategic
development of Croatia.
1
|
|
 |