Development & Intelligence 2003-2053
† Stevan Dedijer1
“Do not laugh: it is I who knows
the future and reads its thought”
Denis Diderot, 3 December 1765, Corr.V.206
Stevan Dedijer, 25 September, 2003
“Don’t bite my finger!
Look where I am pointing”
Walter M Cullough in “Machines that Think” l967
and Stevan Dedijer, 25 September, 2003
1. My Last Intelligence paper
I wrote my first paper on Global Social Intelligence at Dartmouth College in USA in l972. Cy Sulzberger commented on it in “The New York Times”, and Sweden’s Foreign policy journal “Internacionella Studier” published it in l973. Since then, I have published about 250 papers and studies on intelligence. This one, dealing with the future of intelligence until the year 2053, is the last one I will write.
For many years, through Croatian media, including the first issue of Infoforum “Business Information”, published in September 2003, I have been saying that, in Croatia, there is little awareness of the state of the world and its rapid development in general, and of the current intelligence and security revolution in particular. In an effort to correct this to some extent I have prepared this, my last paper and the most difficult lecture in my 92 years, addressing the following questions:
1. How is humanity evolving?
2. What is the role of intelligence in this evolution?
3. In what direction will intelligence be evolving?
I hope that today I will arouse your curiosity to read this paper and send any criticism and questions to my e-mail: Stevan.Dedijer@du.tel.hr.
2. Development = Cultural Evolution
“Panta rei” (Everything changes) Heracleitos 550 BC
“Panta rei tachiteron” (Everything changes faster) S.D. l973 AD
Every morning when you awake you should become aware that the world around you is changing more rapidly than ever before in the l0 million years of human history. Philosopher, A. H. Whitehead first told us in l932: “The time spent of important changes is considerably shorter than that of human life.” In l989, two employees of IBM pointed to us in “Beyond IBM”: “The fundamental fact of our new era is: First, every day things change faster. Second, every day people are more different from each other than they were the day before”. The second thing to know is that all change is part of the changes in the culture, from one’s family, to one’s country, and to humanity as a whole.
Nowadays, almost all studies of development are based on the proposition that “development is identical to cultural evolution based on the evolution revolution of intelligence”. Culture is defined as everything man made in every society: values, social structure, politics, technology, norms, habits, personalities, etc. One of the first to formulate the above proposition was one of the founders on anthropology, Lewis Henry Morgan. In l877 he said: “A common principle of intelligence meets us in the savage, in the barbarian and in the civilized man”. The Paleontologist Stephen Gould, on page 324 of his critical view of measurement of intelligence, “Measure of man” (published in l983) proposes: “Human uniqueness resides primarily in our brain. It is expressed in the culture built upon our intelligence and the power it gives us to manipulate the world. […] Human societies change by cultural revolutions. […] Our large brain is the biological foundation of intelligence; intelligence is the ground of culture.”
I discovered this proposition by myself in l972, and based the international conference in OECD upon it, which resulted in the book “”Intelligence for Economic Development”, Dedijer S., Jequier, N. Report from the OECD conference, l979. My lecture is based on the short bibliography of works that follow. The most theoretical of them, based on the mathematical theory of games, is “Nonzero-The Logic of Human Destiny” by Richard Wright, 2003, proposing “As history progresses, human beings find themselves playing non-zero-sum games with more and more of other human beings. Interdependence expands and social complexity grows in scope and depth”. The content of some of these studies follows:
1. “United Nations” Millennium Indicators Database 2003”, including “Goals, targets and indicators”, consists of the following eight culture evolving goals:
1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger,
2. Achieve universal primary education,
3. Promote gender equality and empower women,
4. Reduce child mortality,
5. Improve maternal health,
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases,
7. Ensure environmental sustainability,
8. Develop global partnership for development.
This is followed by l8 targets, and 48 indicators, the last being:
48. Personal computers in use per 100 population and Internet users per l00 population.
2. “State of the world 2003”, The Worldwatch Institute, 2003”, consists of the following chapters:
A History of Our Future
Watching Birds Disappear
Linking Population, Women and Biodiversity
Charting a New Energy Future
Scraping Mining Dependence
Uniting Divided Cities
Engaging Religion in Quest for a Sustainable World
3. “Global Trends 2015”, J. Gannon, chairman of the National Intelligence Council of the U.S.A., 2001, reviews cultural evaluation until 2015.
4. “Surprising Futures – notes from an international workshop on long-term world development”, by Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research, 1987.
5. Robert Estis, “World Social Welfare Report”, School of Social Welfare, University of Pennsylvania, U.S.A.
3. Intelligence Revolution 2003
William Colby, head of the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), was the first in l970s to perceive that we live in an intelligence revolution. He was followed by W. Agrell and S. Dedijer of Sweden. According to Colby, the basic dimensions of this revolution are:
Since l945, all of the world’s l80 sovereign countries have developed national security and intelligence communities,
We live in the midst of the emergence of all kinds of new technologies (computers, space satellites, etc.) used for intelligence and security procurement and analysis,
III. “Privatization” of intelligence in the sense that corporations are systematically using intelligence and security for competition, growth and profit,
IV. The establishment of “insight and control” of the intelligence and security community to ensure its adherence to the basic governing democratic principles,
The global impact of the intelligence revolution.
“This then is the future dimension of intelligence,” says Colby (“Honorable Men: My Life in the CIA”, l978), “It has become an international resource to help humanity to identify and resolve its problems through negotiation and cooperation rather than continue to suffer or fight over them.”
To Colby’s five dimensions of the current intelligence revolution, I added the following three:
1. Individualization of intelligence: the emergence of the information technology in the life of individuals stimulates them to be inquisitive and seek to obtain information to help them understand and work on their problems.
2. “Spying is dying,” I wrote in the Lund University Journal in l975, pointing out that the “espionage technique” used in the past is becoming inadequate and antiquated. My insight was confirmed in l997 by Professor Johnson, adviser to CIA who stated that “espionage was a cold war technique, now less and less suitable to intelligence problems of today”. One of the most prominent diplomats and historians in our century, G. F. Kennan, commented on this in The International Herald Tribune, on May 20, 1997: “It is my opinion based on some 70 years of experience that […] upward of 95% of what we Americans need to know could be very well obtained by the careful and competent study of perfectly legitimate sources of information. […] Much of the remainder […] could easily be non-secretively elicited from similar sources abroad.”
3. The emergence of development sciences is related to individuals and to various social systems including global problems.
World I & S
I guess that the world’s intelligence expenditure in 2003 amounts to about l50 billion dollars, of which, according to an IBM report (see figure), 70 billion is spent on business intelligence and security, 30 billion by the USA, 1.2 billion by the UK, 5 billion each, I guess, by China and Russia, and about 20 billion dollars by the other l70 countries in the world.
a) The European Union
In 1979, I heard the French President, Giskard D’Estang, proclaim at a conference in Paris: “We are living in intelligence revolution”. Two weeks later I read in “Le’Monde” that the Prime Minister of France, M. Roccard, announced “We live in intelligence revolution”. In 2003, G. D’Estang submitted to the 15 states of European Union a proposal for its new constitution. The best EU expert in Croatia tells me that in the 188 pages of the proposed constitution there is no mention of the word “intelligence” but the word “security,” in relation to freedom, is mentioned frequently. From another source I learned that, under the patronage of the office of the EU Secretary General, there is a “Future Committee,” headed by the German Mr. Pappe, who leads a group consisting of directors of 15 largest EU corporations that discuss problems of business intelligence. In view of the existence of intelligence and security communities of hundreds of national states, one must ask how will the 15 states of the European Union organize their own joint intelligence and security community.
b) The United Kingdom
In 1975, the director of Sweden’s Handelsbank, T. Browald, wrote in his memoirs that tree institutions in human history: the Catholic Church, the Swiss banks, and the British Empire had had the best intelligence and security. In the 20th century, Winston Churchill was one of the main promoters of British I & S. In 1919, he established the Industrial Intelligence Department, headed by his friend, Captain M. Morton. This unit played a crucial role in keeping track of German industrial development under Hitler. In 1936, Baldwin’s government established the Joint Intelligence Committee. As Mark Urban says in his book, “The inside story of British intelligence: UK Eyes Alpha”, published in 1996, “It is a strength of the British system that Ministers do not receive conflicting or piecemeal intelligence assessments on situations or issues of concern. Through the JIC they are provided with assessment agreed between departments which provide an objective background to the discussion of policy.”
No other country in the world that I know had something similar to Britain’s JIC. Until John Major became Prime Minister, British intelligence held secret even the name of the director of the Secret Service (MI6). John Major published a publicly available brochure (I have a copy of it) describing the composition of the JIC. It includes, among others, the name of the director of the Bank of England. The committee is located at 11 Downing Street, next door to the Prime Minister’s office at 10 Downing Street. The secretary of the JIC for over 10 years, Charles Powell, has published a book on his experience.
Mark Urban starts his book with questions that every government in the world should ask itself: “How good is our intelligence? What kind of a return do ministers and officials get for the hundreds of millions of pounds spent each year? How does this secret establishment find direction and purpose in age when old certainties have evaporated? Very few people, even in Whitehall, would feel confident enough to answer these questions. So the time is right, I think, to explore the matter publicly.”
Urban points out that “More than anything else, British intelligence is a system for repackaging information gathered by the USA. Most intelligence relates to foreign or defense policy, most of that intelligence is sigint (signal intelligent).” A few years ago, according to Urban, Britain paid 500 million pounds to the United States for its sigint help.
c) The U.S.A. “America Goes Backwards”
The United States of America, with 5% of the world population, is the richest country in the world. However, in The New York Review, issued on June 12, 2003, under the title “America Goes Backwards” Stanley Hoffman, former president of the WTO said:
“A not so benign imperialism by fiscal and social policy that takes good care of the rich but shuns the poor far from “compassionate conservatism” (advocated by the first Bush president of USA”) […] shrinking environment protection can be justified by a defense of the economy, USA military budget equals that of all other nations combined.”
Today, very few people in the world realize that the U.S.A. has many crucial traits of an undeveloped country! In 2002, Prof. R. Estis of the University of Pennsylvania ranked l60 counties according to social welfare indicators. He placed Denmark first, Sweden second, and the U.S.A. 27th. Around 30 million inhabitants of the United States, 10 % of its population, are, according to Estis, poor by any standard. The May –June 2003 issue of the American journal “Ad besters”, tells: “66% of the American adults are overweight. Over obesity has increased 370% since 1970, while the number of overweight kids has doubled.” Heart failure, aided by obesity, is the leading cause of death in the U.S.A. Suicide is the eight leading cause of death, and the third among teens. The U.S.A. has more people in jail in total and per capita than any other industrial nation. The prison population has more than quadrupled since 1980.
According to The Economist “World in Figures 2003,” the United States has the largest population in prison, and the largest number of people in prison per 100,000 inhabitants. As to business corruption, where l0 denotes the least corrupt, the U.S.A. is l6th “Almost everyone who is anyone in Washington – from George Bush Sr. to Henry Kissinger, Bush’s vice president Dick Cheney – has stuck his hand in Saudi cookie jar. The Saudis contribute to both political parties, and they reward their supporters lavishly”, writes 20 year CIA veteran Robert Baer in his 2003 book “Sleeping with the devil – How Washington sold our soul for Saudi crude”. President Bush and vice president Cheney were intimate friends of the directors of Enron, the most crooked firm in American business history. “Share of USA Income Doubles for Richest” writes Tom Herman in August 2003, in “The Wall Street Journal”: “It is not news that the USA has a very wealthy upper crust. But the enormity of the upper class wealth, as laid out by the government IRS bureau, is remarkable. So it is the group’s growth percentage of nation’s wealth. [...] Just look at the corporate directors’ reports for 2000 for the most compensated businessmen. [...] Some people in this country are making an immense amount of money”.
After the power breakdown in August 2003, that affected about 60 million people in the United States and Canada, September 2, 2003 issue of “Le’ Monde” writes: “According to former minister of the Democratic administration, twenty six years after the great breakdown of electric power in New York the power supply network of the USA is at the level of an undeveloped Third World country.”
Since l945, according to the American writer Gore Vidal, in the article “Eternal war for eternal peace” published in Germany, the U.S.A. engaged in about 300 military operations in close to l00 countries.
As I wrote in the June 2003 issue of the journal “Croatia’s Left”, the American foreign policy is a prisoner of Israel, determined in its grand lines by the Jewish lobby in the United States. The low intellectual level of the editors of American mass media is seen in the fact that, after September 11, 2001, none of them asked themselves “What is terrorism?” Terrorism has a 2000-year-old history: It is a poor man’s war, offering his life for freedom. None of these American mass media recalls that the Irish have used terrorism for 200 years to obtain freedom from the Britain.
To conclude, we can agree with Robert David Steele, on page 80 of his ”On Intelligence”, published in 2000: “We are a smart people, but a dumb Nation and this is something we must be aware of if we to prosper and be secure in the 21st century,” and Mark Danner in “Iraq: The New War”, published in the New York Review on September 25 2003, “the US has shown itself to be a strange, hybrid creature, military giant and political dwarf”. General W. K. Clark, who announced his intention of running for the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate position on September 17 2003, published “Winning modern wars Iraq, terrorism, and the America Empire” in 2003.
The American government under G. Bush is currently engaged in imperialistic games, as pointed out by, among others Andrew J. Bacevich in his “American Empire – the realities and consequences of US diplomacy”, published in 2003. On page 4 he says: “Since the end of Cold War the United States has in fact adhered to a well-defined grand strategy. […] That purpose is to preserve and, where both feasible and conductive to US interests, to expand an American emporium. […] Should events belie either of those expectations, the United States will employ its dominant military power to thwart any conceivable challenge to its preeminence.”
Morgan Dan, Washington Post, reprinted in “The Wall Street Journal Europe” in August 2003,” Debate over U.S. ‘Empire’ Builds on Right, Left, Across Political Spectrum; Voices Question Direction Of America’s Foreign Policy”; “At forums sponsored by policy think thanks, on radio talk shows and around dinner tables throughout America, one topic has been hotter than the recent weather in Washington: Has the US become the very “empire” that the republic’s founders heartily rejected?”
The New York Review of 25/IX/2003 reviews six new books on “the American Empire”
Hobsbaum, Eric, “Ou va l Empite Americain? (Where is the American empire going)”, Le’ Monde Diplomatique, June 2003
Gore Vidal (in German) “Eternal War fir Eternal Peace” Europaische Vwerlagsanstalt, 2002 lists over 300 military operations the USA has engaged in since 1945.
Such an ultra conservative policy is carried out by the Bush government amidst our Current Intelligence Revolutions, generated by the American information technology. What is the current state of the American intelligence community with its 13 agencies, its 30 billion dollar budget, and tens of billion dollars R&D budget?
In his book (written in French), “La citedelle endormie”, Faillite de L’espionage americain (Fortress asleep – the failure of American espionage), published in 2002, Jean Guisnel describes the problems of the United States intelligence community. Inspired by this book, I have listed the following events as the failure of the U.S.A. intelligence community, which consists of the following agencies:
- Department of Energy
- Department of Treasury
- Department of Army
- Department of the Navy
- Department of the Air
- US Marines (Department of the Navy)
- FBI- Department of Justice
- Central Intelligence Agency
- National Reconnaissance Office
- Central Imagery office
- National Security Agency
- Defense Intelligence Agency
- Department of State
No organization or individual in the United States oversees or controls this I & S community, with its 13 agencies. Each of them is a self governing bureaucracy in intense competition with the other agencies. Robert Gates, the director of CIA under four presidents, on page 197 of his autobiography “From the Shadows,” states that “The CIA is one of the most closed bureaucracies in Washington, an agency hostile to “outsiders” at any level, a complex and clannish organization deeply averse to change.” (p. 197). It seems all other American I & S agencies, are just as bureaucratic.
The United States of America is the most informed country in the world. However, intelligence of a social system depends on the analysis of the gathered information. The American I & S community is extremely week in analysis of information gathered. In 1999, director for analysis of CIA, R. Heuer, published “Psychology of Intelligence analysis”, which consists of articles written between l978 and l986 for the internal use of CIA directorate of intelligence. I read the book, and I believe that, had a student of mine written it, I would have flunked him/her, for not understanding what intelligence analysis really is.
The U.S.A. has conducted dozens of its own intelligence community surveys. One of the earliest such studies was conducted by General Doolittle in 1955, under President Eisenhower. In this report, General Doolittle says: “Since USSR is not guided by any ethical principles, the US should also not be guided by any ethical principles.”
A list of the latest reports on the U.S.A. is cited in G. F. Treverton’s Reshaping National Intelligence for the age of Information. This book was recommended by three former directors of CIA, by Admiral Bob Inman, former head of the National Security Agency, by Professor J. S. Nye, head of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, and by Z. Brzezinski, Sarter’s National Security Adviser. One of the main shortcomings of this book is that it does not devote attention to the U.S.A. in the evolving planetary society. Only a three-page long section includes a question “What kind of America?”
Here is Treverton’s list of studies on American intelligence: “The four most prominent to report are the executive-congressional Commission on the Role and Capabilities of the United States Intelligence Community (often and herein called the “Aspin-Brown commission” after its two chairmen), Preparing for the 21st Century, Washington, D.C., March 1, 1996; the House Intelligence Committee, IC21: The Intelligence Community in the 21st Century, Washington, D.C., March 4, 1996; and two private panels, the Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force, Making Intelligence Smarter: The Future of US Intelligence, New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1996, and the one I was most associated with, the report of the Twentieth Century Fund Task Force on the Future of US Intelligence, In From the Cold, New York: Twentieth Century Fund report.” There is also “The National Strategy Security Strategy”, published in September of 2002, signed by President George Bush.
None of these reports has analyzed intelligence & security failures of the I & S community. What follow is my list of them:
1. Attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan in 1941
2. Attack by North on South Korea in 1950
3 China’s attack on South Korea in 1952
4. “Bay of Pigs” invasion of Cuba in 1961
5. Attack by USSR on Czechoslovakia in 1968
6. Overthrow of the Shah by Khomeini
7. Attack by allied Arabs on Israel in 1973
8. Collapse of the USSR in 1989 (not foreseen by the USSR’s KGB)
9. Terrorist attack on the USA on September 11, 2001
10. Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction
d) An Intelligence State: Sweden
Sweden is a small country, with a population of only 8.5 million, or 0.2% of the world’s population. Yet it produces 1% of the world’s wealth. By all indicators of development, Sweden belongs to the most advanced among the 180 countries of the world. Of all the countries of the world, Sweden perceived the intelligence revolution and applied it for its outstanding social development best. For example:
Sweden among 180 Countries
Education - first
Competitiveness - fifth
Democracy and anticorruption - second
Standard of living - fourth
Social welfare - second
Research and Development - first
“National Intelligence Quotient” (an indicator I invented to measure the intelligence & security of social systems of a country) - first
Social science is still unable to tell us reliably and validly why one country is more developed than another. I propose that Sweden’s high development among 180 countries can be ascribed, among many others, to two factors. The first of these factors is Sweden’s social personality or its national character, formed during its history. Social sciences have not yet learned how to define and use such concepts. During my 38 years in Sweden, I strove intensely to understand its way of life, social personality and national character. I identified 15 national character traits of Sweden:
- .Strive toward a maximum rationality of human behavior,
- “Ording och Reda” - Everything is to be done rationally and in proper order,
- Maximum communication without laughter and emotion in decisions and the workplace,
- “Yenta lagen” - we are all equal in Sweden so be ashamed if you want to stick out,
- Respect of privacy and individuality regardless of sex, national origins, income, or social status,
- Humane approach to justice: society creates criminals, they have a right to privacy,
- Curiosity is essential, but must not be openly displayed,
- Every conflict can and must be solved without violence,
- All types of creativity and inventiveness must be stimulated and rewarded,
- Travel abroad - intelligence of the world is essential,
- Ombudsman - a concept used in Sweden to refer to a citizen appointed by the government to whom every one can complain against misuse of power by the state officials,
- Widespread and deep love of nature and the countryside,
- ”Allemans Ratt” - the right to be on private property coupled with the obligation to respect it.
To some extent, the present social personality of Sweden can be also explained by the fact that its social-democratic government has been constantly elected and in power during the past 80 years. One unique contribution from this to the life style of Sweden is the fact that the social democrats in 1938 proposed a social innovation to ensure industrial stability and avoid conflicts between capital and labor. That year they established the ”Salttsjobad spirit”, a time when representatives of capital and the trade unions meet every year to agree on problems connected with work conditions and salaries. Both sides come with research reports on the issues and a way is always found, taking the interests of both sides into consideration.
When I began to study the history of intelligence in l972, I discovered that it played an important role in Sweden’s history. At the same time, I found that there was no systematic study of it, just abundant examples of it. Here are a number of cases of intelligence in Sweden’s history:
1. The appended figure from 8th century shows the Viking god, (Oden in Swedish) on a horse, as two ravens, named Huggin and Muggin, fly above him to find intelligence useful to Oden. Huggin and Muggin are today the symbols of Military Intelligence of Sweden.
2. In 1767 the “Gotteborg Spy”, (a journal, still published by the Gotteborg University) published 20 articles by the Swede Wallenstrole, describing the process of making porcelain in England. We know now that in 1713 a French Jesuit stole in China the process for porcelain, and the French scientist Raemur began making porcelain in France. From there it was smuggled to England and from there to the “Gotteborg Spy” journal.
3. In 1903, Marcus Walenberg, director of SEB Bank, sent the 23-year-old R. Jolin to France to learn from the Credit Lyonnais Bank and the French military intelligence how to assess individuals and organizations seeking loans. The history of the SEB Bank by Professor Gardlund tells that Walenberg said, “We shall not call your unit ‘our intelligence department’ but ‘statistical department’”. My student, Ulf Peterson, who worked in this department, gave me a photo of it from the 1950s.
Sweden’s Intelligence & Security Community in 2003
The concept intelligence and security community was first used in the U.S.A. to describe the 13 American government intelligence and security organizations. I shall use it to describe all social systems in a country engaged in I & S. I do not know of any country in the world that has developed intelligence and security in its constituting organizations as Sweden has. In this sense, it can be said that Sweden is the model for other countries.
The basic components of Sweden’s I&S community are:
1. Business Intelligence & Security (see attached list)
2. Consulting I & S firms and state organizations (see list)
3. Intelligence &Security courses (see list)
4. Municipal Intelligence and Consulting units (see list)
5. Department of Defense (Military Intelligence Authority, Special Services Authority, Radio-Satellite Listening Center)
6. Foreign Policy Department
7. Industry Department (Technical Attaches)
9. Security police (SAPO)
10. Defense Policy Research Institute (FOI)
11. Intelligence Survey and control Com. (FUN)
13. East Economy Institute
14. Foreign Policy Institute
15. The Security Agency Commission
16. Sweden’s Private Owners Association (SAF)
A. Swedish firms which are members of SPCI (Society of Professionals for Competitive Intelligence):
- AlzoNobel Surface Chemistry AB
- Astra Arcus AB
- Astra PainControlAB
- Celsius AB Comintel
- Danisco Sugar AB
- Ericssion Radio Systems AB
- Ericsson Mobile Communications AB
- IBM Svenska AB
- MolnlykeHealth Care AB
- Pharmacia & Upjohn
- SAAB AB
- SCA Hygiene Products AB
- Tetra PackCarton Systems AB
- Solutions AB
- Silo Group AB
- SKF Group Headquarters
- Stockholm ResearchAB
- Telia AB
- VattenfallGroup AB
- Volvo Car Corp.
- (plus about 50 other firms)
SE Bank and SAS, on the other hand, are not members of SPCI.
B. Institutions and I & S Consulting:
- Stockholm Municipal Intelligence + (see figure)
- National Post Office
- National Railways
- Anderbjork Community Intelligence
- Docere Consulting
S.O.S. Monthly enterprises Security Journal, containing, among other, hundreds of firms providing security consulting and technology
C. Courses in Sweden on Global Intelligence and Business Intelligence in 2001
- Lund University
- Helsingborg Campus
- Goteborg University
- Stockholm University
- Luleo Technical University
- Stockholm’s Economy School
- Vaxjo University
- Advanced High Schools
- Jonskoping High school
- Gavle High school
- Melardals High school
- Private Consultants
- Docere Co.
- Kairos Future
- Gallofta Learning
- State Institutions
- Police High school
- Defense High school
D. SAF = Sweden’s Employers Association – Intelligence and Security effort
A crucial role in the development of Sweden’s I & S community was played by SAF. Twenty years ago Colonel Lennart Borg began to help firms to develop the security through all types of innovations. In 1987, L. Borg published a study saying that in 1960 65% of intelligence and security expenditure was for the military and 15% for technical and economic intelligence. In 1985, military intelligence cost 30% and economic and technical intelligence cost 60%. Since l990 SAF began to develop the intelligence of firms. During the last l0 years Borg organized the annual conferences attended by all the above listed components of Sweden’s I & S community. During my study of the current intelligence revolution I have not been able to find any other country holding such I & S community conferences. From each of such conferences a volume was prepared. In l997 it was entitled: “Global Intelligence and Competitive Power”. In it, the head of Military Intelligence of Sweden, General Eric Rossander, accepted my idea of an intelligent state by asking “what kind of information do we need to achieve Stevan Dedijer’s intelligent community?” Intelligence researchers in Sweden took up some classical ideas as “Early Warning National Security”, as did Jan Lejonhjelm of FOI. Others, like the banker Rutger Palmstierna of the firm “Macro Intelligence” studying “Early Financial Warning”, study new intelligence problems. Every year W. Agrell holds a very creative two-term business intelligence course.
The future intelligence research problems of Sweden will have to be studied. In view of the complexity of Sweden’s I & S community, one must ask whether Sweden will be the first country in the world to establish, in addition to the Foreign Policy, Economic Policy, and Defense Policy Ministries, also a National Intelligence & Security Ministry. Its aim would be to implement the emerging I & S ideas from the current intelligence revolution and co-ordinate all dimensions of Sweden’s I & S effort. In 2003 the government of Sweden established a commission to recommend greater transparency of the military intelligence and security of the country.
4. Stevan Dedijer Prophet: “Omega Point 2053”
During its evolution, humanity has experienced several intelligence revolutions. I identified the following, starting at about 6 million years ago to 2000AD:
1. Bipedalism, freeing primates hands for work - 7 to 5 million years ago
2. The increase in weight of the human brain, from about 500 to l5000 grams – 4-3 M.Y.A.
3. Evidence of culture - about 3 million years ago
4. Emergence of language - about l50 000 years ago
5. Invention of writing - 6000 to 3000 B.C.
6. Scientific revolution, experiments & Mathematics used to make new discoveries - l5th –l7th century
7. Rise of capitalism, national states, and corporate intelligence - l300-l600
8. Industrial revolution, invention of innovations - l780-l820
9. Global mass education revolution - 19th and 20th century
l0. Information technology revolution: computers, satellites, the Internet - 20th century.
In the 1920s, three individuals prophesized the emergence of future intelligence revolutions. Fifty years before the emergence of information technology and computers, in his “Public Opinion” the publicist Walter Lipman foresaw that the growth and increased usage of knowledge and information in the world will result in the emergence of a pervading organized intelligence.
The founder of the pragmatic philosophy, John Dewey, predicted that the development of social intelligence will avoid the conflict between the laisser faire market economy and the totalitarian socialism. The third intelligence prophet was the Jesuit priest Theillard de Chardin, about whom the “Dictionary of Philosophy” (1978) says: “The evolutionism that Theillard advocates is an all embracing evolutionism that characterizes much more than living things”. His evolutionism caused him to be dismissed from the Jesuit order. Theillard predicted that the biosphere will be succeeded by the emergence of the “noosphere” that is “an intelligence sphere” (in Greek noos is intelligence) and of the Omega point in human history, which he described in rather mystic terms.
Today I join these three prophets from the 1920s to foresee what will happen with the cultural evolution and intelligence by 2053, the year I call “the intelligence Omega point”. First, I foresee that more and more countries will develop, just as Sweden is doing, the intelligence of all their social systems. Second, Dewey’s conflict between the laisser faire market and totalitarianism will be, in the words of W. Colby: “… the future dimension of intelligence: it is becoming an international resource to help humanity to identify and resolve its problems, through negotiation and cooperation rather than continue to suffer or fight over them”. In other words, by 2053, I predict, war will be eliminated in much the same way as small pox has been eliminated.
As early as 450 B.C., Hypocrites perceived: “It ought to be generally known that […] our brain […] is the special organ which enables us to think, see, and hear, and to distinguish the ugly and the beautiful, the bad and the good, pleasant and unpleasant.” (cited by F. Crick in “An Astounding Hypothesis”, l988). This is repeated by Nobel laureate, J. Eccles in “The Human Mystery” (1980), when he states that “Brain is central to the human mystery.”
Today, close to 30,000 researchers are studying the brain. They consider it “the most complex system in the universe”. In 1890, it was discovered that the brain consists of 100 billion neuron cells, each connected to 100 - 10 000 other neurons. In every issue the journal “Nature” publishes research on the brain, yet its editor John Maddox, in his book “What remains to be discovered” (1999) says: “We don’t know how the simplest brain works”.
There are three kinds of writings on the brain. First, books by neuroscience researchers, as for example, S. Greenfield, who wrote “The Human Mind Explained” in 1996. Second, there are books by those who think they can tell us how to use our brain, like T. Buzzan’s “Use Your Brain”, published in 1982.
Third, there are heuristic works or propositions on how to create products of the brain in science and technology. A. Einstein, in a letter to Souvorine, answers his question “What is science?” by claiming that “Science starts with insight leaps, followed by derived axioms tested by experiment.” Nobel laureates W. Heisenberg and W. Pauli stated: “In physics we start with questions”. Nobel laureate R. Feynman tells us to “Learn from science that you must doubt the experts.” Mathematician H. Poincare comments on “Hypothesis in science” saying: “Every invention is a novel combination of existing insights”. W. Gratzer, in “Eureka and Euphorias: Oxford Book of Scientific Anecdotes”, published in 2002, describes such important insights in the history of science, from Archimedes’ “Eureka” in 250 B.C. to the discovery of the structure of the DNA by J. Watson and F. Crick in l953 etc.
Here I shall do a bit of guessing about the further development of the noosphere and of the possible Omega Point in human history - which Chardin left rather mysterious and ill-defined. Reading carefully the works listed in the bibliography, I could not find any hint that the neuroscience has begun to describe, in the language of interaction of the 1000 billion neurons in the brain, the basic elements of human creativity such as doubt, a question, a problem, an idea, a hypothesis, an insight, or a thought. I predict that soon these will be analyzed.
I have studied the following works intensely:
1. Greenfield, S., “The Human Mind Explained”, 2000
2. Eatey, J., “User’s Guide to the Brain”, 2002
3. Underwood G. “Oxford Guide to the Mind”, 2001
4. “La revolution des neurosciences”, Isabel France, January 2000
5. Watson, J. D., “DNA: The Secret of Life”, 2003
6. Wills, Ch., “The Runaway Brain. The Evolution of Human uniqueness”, 2002
7. Parker, S., McKinney, M., “Origin of Intelligence - The Evolution of Cognitive Development in Monkeys, Apes and Humans”, l999
8. Foster, J. M. “Cortex and Mind, Unifying Cognition”
On the basis of this study, I could not find why the neuroscience in 2003 could not define or explain such heuristic creative tools as questions, ideas, insights, etc, in terms of our knowledge of interaction of neurons.
Because of all this, I end my last paper on intelligence with the prediction and prophesy that at Point Omega, in the year 2053:
l. The proposition of W. Colby on global intelligence will elim inate war from the history of the human species,
2. All political entities will have, like Sweden now, developed their social intelligence,
3. The evolution of “Nonzero” interaction in the planetary society will result in an unprecedented development,
4. Both J. Watson, the discoverer of the structure of DNA, together with F. Crick, in his book “DNA: The Secret of Life” (2003) and L. Whaley, in “The Aging Brain” (2003), point out to the finding of the psychologist Flint that in the most developed countries the IQ has grown by over 20 %. What will the IQ of the planetary society inhabitants be at the Omega Point in 2053?
5. The interaction of the development of neuroscience and of the human genome science will solve many of the cur rently perceived mysteries of the human brain and mind!
5. Where is Croatia in development and intelligence?
Where will Croatia be at the Omega Point 2053?
As shown on page 15, Sweden, according to world development indicators, belongs among ten most developed countries in the world. Croatia, according to the same indicators, is between 45th and 65th place. I address these two questions to everyone reading my last paper today, to the Croatian governing establishment, and to vice-premiere Granić, whom I understand to be responsible for the strategic development of Croatia.